MT Morning Brief · 2026-06-25

Index Participation Leads the Morning Futures Narrative — June 25, 2026

Published pre-open at 8:00 AM ET. Outcome reviewed 2026-06-28.

This morning's futures setup is framed as bullish, with confidence at 72%. The main driver is Core PCE Price Index m/m. Breadth is the first checkpoint: all four major index futures are positive. SMH is the largest relative mover at -7.47%. NQ is leading the equity-index group at +2.26%. Intermarket checks are VIX -3.81%, DXY +0.07%, TNX -2.03%. The macro calendar item to keep on the radar is Core PCE Price Index m/m. Market-risk scan flags Geopolitical risk, Growth and earnings risk: Geopolitical risk: Thousands feared dead after two major earthquakes strike Venezuela. Headline flow is being treated as context, led by Anthropic says Alibaba illicitly extracted Claude AI model capabilities. The setup weakens if Core PCE Price Index m/m may dominate pre-market positioning.

Bias

Bullish

Confidence

72 / 100

Key driver

Core PCE Price Index m/m

Primary risk

Core PCE Price Index m/m may dominate pre-market positioning.

ES outcome

Incorrect (-0.49%)

NQ outcome

Incorrect (-1.02%)

Reviewed

2026-06-28

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About This Record

Every MT Morning Brief keeps its original timestamp, bias, and confidence score. ES and NQ outcomes are reviewed separately after the session using the 8:00 AM to 4:00 PM ET move; neutral readings are excluded from directional scoring. Premium subscribers receive the full narrative, key driver, risk map, and watch conditions before the cash open.

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MT Morning Brief is market commentary, not trade recommendations. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Directional accuracy is reviewed after each session; neutral readings are excluded from directional scoring. See the scoring methodology and terms.